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The 30th anniversary of the Quebec sovereignty referendum provides an ideal opportunity to look back at the evolution of several socioeconomic and public finance indicators.
Our research team at the Chaire de recherche en fiscalité et en finances publiques (CFFP), took this opportunity to paint a picture of the progress made and the persistent challenges that shape the lives of Quebecers.
This exercise does not claim to be exhaustive: the choices presented reflect our areas of expertise and the availability of statistical data.
A declining demographic weight
Over the past 30 years, Quebec’s demographic weight within Canada has continued its downward trend, falling by 2.7 percentage points from 24.6 per cent to 21.9 per cent.
Statistics Canada data show that population growth in Quebec between 1995 and 2024 accounted for only 16 per cent of Canada’s population growth. This proportion is slightly higher for natural increase (19 per cent) than for net migration (15 per cent). In other words, Quebec’s population grew more slowly than in the rest of Canada, mainly due to lower net migration.
A narrowing gap in living standards
Quebec’s share of the Canadian economy also declined by 1.5 percentage points over the same period, but to a lesser extent than its demographic weight, reflecting a slightly greater relative increase in wealth in Quebec than in the rest of Canada.
Since 1995, Quebec’s real GDP per capita has grown by 42 per cent compared to 34 per cent for the rest of Canada, narrowing Quebec’s unfavourable GDP per capita gap from 18 per cent in 1995 to 13 per cent in 2024.
Employment growth, especially among women
The employment rate for 15- to 64-year-olds in Quebec has not only caught up with Canada as a whole, but has now surpassed it. While it lagged by 4.2 percentage points in 1995, it now exceeds the Canadian rate by 2.6 points. Consequently, the unemployment rate for this same group, which was initially higher in Quebec, is now below the Canadian average.
The decline in unemployment has been more pronounced in Quebec, with a drop of 6.1 percentage points, compared to 3.1 for all of Canada. As with other indicators in this analysis, these differences would be even more pronounced if we compared Quebec to the rest of Canada rather than to Canada as a whole, whose statistics are influenced by developments in Quebec.
This catch-up, like the positive gap in employment rates in 2024, is even more pronounced among women. The development of low-cost childcare services, launched in 1997, and the introduction of the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan in 2006 have contributed significantly to this trend. It should be noted that these two programs subsequently inspired Canadian public policy.
A more egalitarian Quebec…
Quebec’s Pay Equity Act passed in 1996 is one of several policies that have facilitated greater participation by women in the labour market and contributed to greater equality.
For example, the ratio of women’s average hourly earnings to men’s, which was already higher in Quebec in 1997, increased more sharply in Quebec (6.8 points) than in Canada as a whole (5.8 points), widening Quebec’s lead.
In addition, the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) also showed that the ratio of hourly wages for mothers compared to fathers among parents whose youngest child was under 6 years of age in 2023 was significantly higher in Quebec (90 per cent) than in Ontario (82 per cent).
Quebec’s 2002 adoption of the Act to Combat Poverty and Social Exclusion should also be underlined. Several indicators highlight the progress made. Whether the social assistance rate, the after-tax low-income rate or after-tax inequality indicators, Quebec’s improvement has outpaced that of Canada.
The social assistance rate, which was higher in Quebec, is now lower than in Canada, showing an improvement of seven points in Quebec compared to 4.3 points for Canada as a whole.
When it comes to the percentage of the population living below the low-income cut-off level, the trend is similar: Quebec once had a higher rate and now has a lower rate. While the Canadian rate has remained virtually stable, Quebec has seen an improvement of 3.8 percentage points. Finally, in terms of inequality, Quebec was and remains less unequal than the rest of the country. The indicator even declined slightly in Quebec, while it rose slightly in Canada.
… but among the most heavily taxed
Government finances are heavily influenced by demographics, the economy, and the labour market. However, one key factor in comparing public finances is the tax burden, i.e., the weight of tax revenues collected by all levels of government (federal, Quebec, municipalities, Quebec Pension Plan) in Quebec’s GDP.
This rate is higher in Quebec than in Canada as a whole. In addition, the CFFP’s taxation report, Bilan de la fiscalité au Québec, shows an upward trend between 1995 and 2023, from 37.5 per cent to 39.7 per cent. For Canada, the rate is stable for these two years (34.6 per cent and 34.9 per cent).
Ranked among a selection of countries (G7, Sweden, and the average of advanced OECD economies), the tax burden in Quebec remained in4thplace for both years, while Canada fell from 6th to 8th place out of 10.
Rising health care spending
Focusing on the largest portfolio in terms of weight, health and social services expenditures accounted for 36 per cent of Quebec government spending in 1995-1996, and it rose to 41 per cent in 2024-2025. Public accounts show a similar trend for all provinces.
Data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information and the OECD allow us to compare the weight of public and private health spending in the economy for a selection of OECD countries. This share has increased everywhere, but more in the United Kingdom (5.4 percentage points), Japan (4.6), the United States (4.2), and Sweden (4.1) than in Quebec (3.5). Quebec has thus moved from fourth to second place for the highest share, while Canada as a whole has remained in the same position.
Change in budget balance
Another distinctive feature of Quebec is worth noting: the Balanced Budget Act, passed in 1996 in the wake of the 1995 referendum to strengthen Quebec’s financial credibility. Despite revisions and two suspensions since its introduction, it remains an important anchor.
As a percentage of GDP, Quebec’s budget balance has improved from -2.2 per cent in the 1995-1996 fiscal year to -1.2 per cent in 2024-2025, or -0.8 per cent before payments to the Generations Fund. For all provinces and territories combined, this ratio has improved from -1.4 per cent to -0.5 per cent.
Looking at the budget balance for all levels of government in Quebec, Statistics Canada data show an improvement in Quebec’s balance, from -10.2 per cent of GDP in 1995 to -2.8 per cent in 2023. For Canada as a whole, this ratio went from a deficit of -5.2 per cent of GDP to a surplus of 0.1 per cent. On this basis, the improvement in the balance is greater in Quebec (7.2 points) than for Canada as a whole (5.6 points), even though a deficit remains.
Among select OECD countries, Quebec moved from the largest deficit to sixth place while Canada moved from sixth to the top spot.
Net debt declining
Another fiscal anchor for Quebec is the Act to Reduce the Debt and Establish the Generations Fund, passed in 2006. This Act has also been revised several times and, together with the Balanced Budget Act, has helped reduce the debt burden.
In 1997, Quebec’s net debt represented 45.8 per cent of GDP, well above the provincial average (29.1 per cent), and this remains the case in 2023 (38 per cent vs. 28.7 per cent). However, while the total net debt burden of the provinces has remained stable, Quebec’s net debt burden has decreased, illustrating the effect of the laws.
Considering the net debt of all levels of government and public agencies in Quebec, including a portion of the federal debt, the 2023 ratio comes to between 52.5 per cent and 56.6 per cent of GDP, depending on whether the federal debt is apportioned by population, GDP, or tax revenue. This is the sixth highest net debt out of ten jurisdictions. For all levels of government in Canada combined, the figure is 14.4 per cent the second-lowest net debt overall.
The picture is very different when compared to 2001. While Sweden reduced its net debt by 22.4 percentage points, four countries saw this ratio increase by more than 50 points (France [51], the United States [59.7], the United Kingdom [61.2], and Japan [61.5]). Quebec, for its part, reduced its net debt, moving from third to sixth place among the group – a notable improvement. It should be noted that the IMF’s methodology for calculating Canada’s figure has changed, making comparisons over time impossible.
Vigilance remains essential
Looking back, we can see how far Quebec has come in terms of certain indicators. But what about the future? Demographic changes, including an aging population, continue to exert significant pressure on economic variables and public finances, more so than elsewhere in Canada.
Then, from a social perspective, the progress made is undeniable. However, we must remain vigilant, as further progress remains to be made, particularly in terms of housing and homelessness. Finally, the environmental challenge, which has not been addressed so far, remains crucial. Quebec has distinguished itself with its cap-and-trade emissions system, but some recently announced policy directions appear to undermine the anticipated progress.
In conclusion, while measuring the positive evolution of a number of indicators is certainly a useful exercise in taking stock of the progress made, it must above all fuel our determination to set new targets and continue to move forward.
Looking back, Quebec has clearly made significant strides on a number of indicators. But what lies ahead? Demographic shifts, particularly population aging, continue to put substantial pressure on economic variables and public finances – more so than elsewhere in Canada.
From a social perspective, progress has been undeniable. Yet vigilance is still required, as further gains remain to be made, especially in areas such as housing and homelessness.
Finally, the environmental challenge, not addressed until now, remains a crucial one. Quebec has set itself apart through its cap-and-trade emissions system, but some recently announced policy directions appear to be weakening anticipated progress.
Taking stock of positive trends across key indicators is indeed a useful exercise. But above all, it should strengthen our determination to set new goals and continue moving forward.
