Since returning to office in January, U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric toward Canada has veered from casual disdain, such as referring to former prime minister Justin Trudeau as “governor,” to outright provocation, including the suggestion that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state.
Following the April election of Mark Carney, Trump changed his tone again, proposing that the U.S. extend its proposed “golden dome” missile defence system to Canada, but hiking the price tag to US$71 billion – unless Canada agreed to become the 51st state.
These provocations have resonated deeply in Canadian public discourse and sparked lively debate among scholars, spurred by a thought-provoking commentary by Frédéric Mérand who argued that Canada should consider applying for membership in the European Union.
His proposal is designed to signal that Canada has meaningful geopolitical and economic alternatives beyond its powerful southern neighbour and his idea is as strategic as it is provocative. The symbolism is powerful, but the practicalities are daunting – as argued by most of his colleagues responding to his commentary.
An easier and potentially better alternative would be for Canada to consider joining the European Political Community (EPC), an emerging diplomatic forum designed to enhance dialogue and policy alignment across the continent with 45 member states including most European countries other than Russia and Belarus.
A difficult path to EU membership
Canadian accession to the EU would entail a complex array of principled concerns, derogations and institutional adjustments, especially in areas such as migration and monetary policy.
More importantly, such a process would take years, if not decades, and could provoke further tensions with the current U.S. administration – a partner too large and influential to ignore, especially with the possibility of more conventional politics returning to Washington after Trump.
Given these constraints, the likelihood of Canada joining the EU remains remote. Nevertheless, this debate opens the door to alternative avenues for deeper transatlantic co-operation.
Canada and the EU already have a long-standing, close economic and political partnership most recently formalized through the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement and the Strategic Partnership Agreement, which together establish a framework for economic, political and security co-operation.
The EPC was born from French President Emmanuel Macron’s 2022 initiative in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and it serves as a biannual intergovernmental forum for political co-ordination. Its aim is to foster co-operation in areas of shared concern, such as security, stability and prosperity, without duplicating or replacing existing institutions.
This flexible framework is rooted in earlier efforts to rethink Europe’s security architecture, echoing former French president François Mitterrand’s 1989 proposal for a European Confederation – a visionary plan designed to stabilize Europe in the uncertain aftermath of the Cold War.
The European political map has shifted
Canada (and the U.S.) even participated in exploratory talks about the confederation in the early 1990s but the idea did not bear fruit because most Central and East European countries ultimately opted for membership in NATO and the European Community, which later became the EU. But the geopolitical map has shifted with a Russia that is increasingly hostile and a U.S. president who is no longer a reliable political ally.
Unlike the EU, the EPC imposes no legal obligations, requires no treaty ratification and places no restrictions on membership beyond alignment with its values and objectives. Yet it holds considerable symbolic and practical value. It brings together countries that are not necessarily EU or NATO members but that share common interests in European stability.
In principle, Canada could join almost immediately and participation could take effect through simple consultation. Other countries have joined after its establishment, such as the U.K. in September 2022. Denmark will serve as the host of the next meeting in October, which might be a window of opportunity for Canadian participation.
For Canada, joining the EPC would be a strategic move. As a member of both NATO and the OSCE, Canada already plays a vital role in European security. However, both organizations are under pressure – NATO due to persistent uncertainties about Trump’s policies and threats targeting allies such as Canada and Denmark; and the OSCE because of Russian isolation which has brought the organization close to dysfunctionality.
In this context, the EPC provides a new multilateral space to align Canadian and European priorities more closely, especially at a time when transatlantic co-ordination is more important than ever.
How Canada could get much closer to Europe
Joining the EPC would also allow Canada to deepen its engagement with European partners without provoking Washington. Rather than a dramatic geopolitical shift, this would represent a pragmatic enhancement of Canada’s existing European ties.
It would also allow the EPC to develop into a transatlantic umbrella for relations between Europe and third countries, embracing (differentiated) integration with Southeast and East European countries, with the European Economic Area (including Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway) and bilaterally with Switzerland. All of these countries are members of the EPC and have relations with Canada.
Balanced approach needed
It would strengthen Canada’s voice in shaping Western responses to global challenges from democratic backsliding to energy security and climate change while avoiding the diplomatic fallout that might accompany a symbolic tilt toward Brussels.
Ultimately, Canada’s foreign policy must balance its deep integration with the United States against its desire for strategic autonomy.
While EU membership remains a theoretical and largely unattainable proposition, deeper co-operation with Europe through the EPC (and NATO) – as well as strengthened bilateral relations with European partners and regional organizations such as the Nordic Council – represents a viable and forward-looking alternative going beyond existing ties.
It reflects Canada’s long-standing commitment to multilateralism and offers a timely platform for defending liberal democratic values.
Rather than dreaming of EU membership, Canada would be better served by positioning itself as a transatlantic bridge – connecting Europe and North America in an era of renewed geopolitical uncertainty.
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