Shifting geopolitical winds are disrupting patterns of international trade. Increasingly strained relations between China and the West, Russian aggression, and the supply-chain disruptions of the pandemic have shaken up decades of diplomatic and economic ties.
Countries are rearranging their priorities as the tension grows between trade liberalization and other concerns like security, climate change and human rights, along with domestic politics. The United States, Canada’s biggest trading partner, is racing toward a pivotal November election.
This series examines how major international players including Canada are navigating this rapidly evolving geopolitical environment.
Mexico, a longtime partner of Canada in trilateral trade negotiations with the United States, is changing rapidly on its own, displacing Canada as the biggest U.S. trade partner.
Canada’s trade growth with China has waned over a decade as Chinese leaders have shifted toward a focus on regime and national security. They have their own concerns about the risks linked to interdependence, reflected in their “Made-in-China” program.
The European Union is becoming a more complicated trade partner as it seeks to implement industrial policy, make advances on fighting climate change, and secure supply chains.
Then there is the unique challenge posed to Canada by the United States. Canada must deal with the constant impulse toward protectionism in its biggest trading partner while electoral politics loom large. While the arrival of Kamala Harris as a presidential frontrunner was a relief to most Canadians, an ascendant Democratic Party is no guarantee of smooth trading ahead for Canada. A renewed Republican administration under Donald Trump could be profoundly disruptive in a myriad of ways, including trade.
An examination of how Canada should navigate these shifting global currents provides the throughline for the series.
Contributions to this series draw on research supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Read more about Policy Options and our independent editorial process in our Commitment to Readers.
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