{"id":293540,"date":"2016-04-08T17:46:03","date_gmt":"2016-04-08T21:46:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/2016\/04\/sluggish-economy-could-make-tpp-trickier-for-trudeau\/"},"modified":"2025-08-28T15:26:57","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T19:26:57","slug":"sluggish-economy-could-make-tpp-trickier-for-trudeau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2016\/04\/sluggish-economy-could-make-tpp-trickier-for-trudeau\/","title":{"rendered":"Sluggish economy could make TPP trickier for Trudeau"},"content":{"rendered":"

The loonie is languishing, oil prices are in the tank, and the federal government is under pressure to prove its fiscal plan will create jobs and improve the economic optimism of Canadians.<\/p>\n

In this new economic context, the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership could suddenly be seen by Canadians in a different light.\u00a0 Twelve countries that line the Pacific Rim signed the trade deal in February, but it still needs to be ratified by each nation.<\/p>\n

Broadly, one could make the argument that people in this country see themselves as belonging to a trading nation. Indeed, the government of the day sees itself as pro-trade<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sentiment didn\u2019t always skew that way though. Think about the fraught debate over the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement that dominated the mid-to-late 1980s. Or the skepticism a few years later when the North American Free Trade Agreement \u2013 this time including Mexico \u2013 was on the table. At the time, Angus Reid asked Canadians about that deal. Two decades later, we asked\u00a0about<\/a> the Canada-EU Trade Agreement (CETA, still to be ratified in Europe). Figure 1 below shows how Canadians felt about those two trade pacts, in 1993 and in 2014.<\/p>\n

Figure 1. Canadians on free trade agreements, 1993 and 2014.<\/p>\n

\"1\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And here we are now, on the precipice of another trade deal \u2014 the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) \u2014 that finds<\/a> that the proportion of Canadians saying they don\u2019t know enough about it to render an opinion is higher than that of people who support or oppose the agreement (figure 2).<\/p>\n

Figure 2. Support for joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, April 2015-January 2016.<\/p>\n

\"2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Awareness of the TPP increased \u2013 albeit only slightly \u2013 during the last election campaign. Will opinions harden now that Canada has actually put its signature to the deal? It has certainly put the issue back on the radar. But will current economic realities change existing views?<\/p>\n

Take for example, the fact that in a recent poll on the topic<\/a>, people in this country saw the deal having a significant positive impact on consumer choices (figure 3).<\/p>\n

Figure 3. Do you think the TPP will have a positive impact, a negative impact, or no impact, on consumer choices?<\/p>\n

\"3\"<\/a><\/p>\n

But with the value of the Canadian dollar some 30 percent lower against the US dollar than it was three years ago, and with people appearing to be hoarding their cash<\/a>, will economic anxiety squash any enthusiasm to shop for newly available \u2013 and presumably cheaper \u2013 imports?<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the TPP\u2019s perceived impact on the economy. Canadians with an opinion<\/a> have been similarly upbeat about prospects on that front, with more saying the deal will be a net positive on our financial system (figure 4).<\/p>\n

Figure 4. Do you think the TPP will have a positive impact, a negative impact, or no impact, on the Canadian economy?<\/p>\n

\"4\"<\/a><\/p>\n

On this front, a lower dollar may go some way to boosting the manufacturing and export economy \u2013 which may, in turn, benefit from less red tape and freer access to international markets. Time will tell. The bigger question remains, what will signing \u2013 and ultimately ratifying \u2013 the TPP do to employment in this country? Canadians already have some concerns (figure 5).<\/p>\n

Figure 5. Do you think the TPP will have a positive impact, a negative impact, or no impact, on employment and jobs in your area?<\/p>\n

\"5\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As is evident in figure 5, employment is the only area where the people polled<\/a> were more likely to see the trade agreement as a net negative. And it\u2019s here that Justin Trudeau\u2019s government will have to walk a fine line. On one hand, it seems unlikely that Canada will walk away from the agreement. After all, even if there are clauses countries don\u2019t like about the deal, are they really going to risk being left out of the club?<\/p>\n

On the other hand, sluggish national job growth in 2015<\/a>, combined with the undeniable unemployment crisis<\/a> in oil-dependent Alberta and fears the TPP will result in the shedding of tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs (fears that are also being dismissed<\/a>), all mean Trudeau will have to play therapist-in-chief to uneasy Canadians.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The loonie is languishing, oil prices are in the tank, and the federal government is under pressure to prove its fiscal plan will create jobs and improve the economic optimism of Canadians. In this new economic context, the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership could suddenly be seen by Canadians in a different light.\u00a0 Twelve countries […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":913,"featured_media":293538,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"article-status":[],"irpp-category":[],"section":[],"irpp-tag":[],"class_list":["post-293540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSluggish economy could make TPP trickier for Trudeau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2016\/04\/sluggish-economy-could-make-tpp-trickier-for-trudeau\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sluggish economy could make TPP trickier for Trudeau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The loonie is languishing, oil prices are in the tank, and the federal government is under pressure to prove its fiscal plan will create jobs and improve the economic optimism of Canadians. In this new economic context, the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership could suddenly be seen by Canadians in a different light.\u00a0 Twelve countries […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2016\/04\/sluggish-economy-could-make-tpp-trickier-for-trudeau\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Policy Options\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/IRPP.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-04-08T21:46:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-08-28T19:26:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/WordPress-Image-vancouver-shipping-port-TPP.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" 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