{"id":270115,"date":"2022-03-04T11:31:37","date_gmt":"2022-03-04T16:31:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/issues\/nature-based-solutions-are-needed-to-help-us-reach-net-zero\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T23:50:41","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T03:50:41","slug":"nature-based-solutions-are-needed-to-help-us-reach-net-zero","status":"publish","type":"issues","link":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2022\/03\/nature-based-solutions-are-needed-to-help-us-reach-net-zero\/","title":{"rendered":"Nature-based solutions are needed to help us reach net-zero"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cKeep 1.5 alive\u201d was the demand<\/a> heard from many demonstrators at the COP26<\/a> climate conference in Glasgow in November 2021, echoing United Nations Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres\u2019s opening remarks<\/a> in which he called on the delegates to \u201ckeep 1.5 degrees Celsius alive\u201d \u2013 limiting global temperature rise this century to 1.5 degrees C<\/a>elsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n

Achieving that target means reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050<\/a>. Strange as it may seem, reducing our emissions sources to zero does not mean we must stop using carbon-intensive fuels by 2050. However, it does mean that our total emissions<\/em> must be zero.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the difference?<\/p>\n

A jurisdiction\u2019s total emissions<\/em><\/a> are the sum of its emissions sources<\/em> and emissions sinks<\/em>. Emissions sources are activities that emit greenhouse gases, including transportation, power generation, buildings, industry and agriculture. Emissions sinks are entities that capture and store carbon and are grouped into either nature-based solutions<\/a> (notably biological, forests, croplands and wetlands) or technical solutions (including direct air capture<\/a> and geological storage, and carbon mineralization).<\/p>\n

By 2050, every jurisdiction will be in one of three emissions states. If its emissions sources are in balance with its sinks, it will have reached net zero<\/em>. It will be net negative<\/em> if the emissions sources are less than the sinks. If its emissions sources exceed its emissions sinks, it will be net positive<\/em> and will need to find other sinks to become net zero \u2013 for example, by purchasing sinks from a net-negative jurisdiction.<\/p>\n

Climate negotiators take tentative steps to phase out fossil fuel production<\/a><\/p>\n

What is the path to net-zero for oilsands producers?<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Canada and Nova Scotia<\/strong><\/p>\n

In late 2020, the federal government committed Canada to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050<\/a>. Part of its net-zero plan includes a redefinition of how nature-based emissions are calculated<\/a>. Prior to 2020, they were excluded from emissions sinks. However, starting with the 2020 National Inventory Report, to be released in May, they will be included, resulting in a decrease in Canada\u2019s emissions by an additional 25 megatonnes<\/a> (Mt).<\/p>\n

Some provinces and territories also have some form of net-zero legislation. Nova Scotia has two bills (from 2019<\/a> and 2021<\/a>), both stating, \u201cGreenhouse gas emissions in the Province are by 2050, at net zero, by balancing greenhouse gas emissions with greenhouse gas removals and other offsetting measures.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since global warming does not afford us the luxury of waiting until 2049 to act on net zero, we decided to conduct an analysis of Nova Scotia\u2019s existing nature-based solutions to estimate a baseline for the province\u2019s sinks. This gives the province an upper limit on its emissions sources, and time to take steps to maintain and improve its existing sinks and develop new ones.<\/p>\n

Our analysis indicates that in 2019, Nova Scotia\u2019s nature-based solutions totaled -11.5 Mt<\/a>. The forest and wetland sink fluxes (or changes in CO2<\/sub> emission) were -9.7 Mt and -1.9 Mt, respectively, making them net-emissions sinks. However, croplands were a net-emissions source, emitting 0.1 Mt.<\/p>\n

Between 2005 and 2019, Nova Scotia experienced a 30 per cent reduction<\/a> in its emissions sources. However, when compared to its 2019 emissions sinks, the province\u2019s total emissions were still 4.7 Mt, making it net positive.<\/p>\n

Nova Scotia has committed to reducing its emissions by 53 per cent below<\/a> 2005 levels by 2030, or about 10.9 Mt. If the 2019 emissions sinks remain unchanged in 2030, Nova Scotia\u2019s total emissions would be about -0.6 Mt, making the province net negative (Figure 1). If the sinks and the sources remain constant between 2030 and 2050, Nova Scotia would still be net negative in 2050, with total emissions of -0.6 Mt.<\/p>\n