Alberta Premier Jason Kenney continues to bet big on Alberta\u2019s oil and gas industry.<\/p>\n
In the midst of a sticky, hot summer that saw record-high temperatures, and fire crews in neighbouring British Columbia rethink<\/a> how to battle raging forest fires in a changing climate, the United Conservative Party (UCP) premier tweeted<\/a> that \u201cmoving too fast on climate targets will hurt our [economic] recovery and jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n And just days after a dire United Nations report<\/a> warned<\/a> of \u201cirrecoverable\u201d climate impacts, Kenney tweeted a link<\/a> to a Financial Post <\/em>commentary, arguing for increasing investment in Canada\u2019s oil industry, while divesting from \u201cOPEC countries\u00a0with\u00a0poor\u00a0environmental\u00a0and human rights\u00a0records.\u201d<\/p>\n There\u2019s no question: Kenney hopes Alberta\u2019s economy will continue to cook with oil and gas, putting him at odds with many of the people\u00a0intent on cutting greenhouse gas emissions\u00a0gathering in Glasgow for the COP26 global climate summit<\/a>.<\/p>\n Our research, published recently in Environmental Politics<\/em><\/a>, shows that while the majority of Albertans support moving away from fossil fuels toward more renewable sources of energy, a sizeable minority does not. Instead, the continued confidence of many Albertans in the potential economic benefits of the Prairie province\u2019s fossil fuel industry decreases their support for renewable energy such as solar and wind power, and other climate change reduction policies. Like their premier, they continue to favour betting on the economic prosperity of Alberta’s oil and gas industry over switching to clean energy.<\/p>\n Our survey of a random sample of 2,634 Albertans right after the 2019 provincial election, which propelled the nascent UCP to power, found that nearly half (46 per cent) of Albertans agree or strongly agree that oil and gas will still be Alberta\u2019s most important industry 25 years from now. Our survey also reveals that nearly one-in-five (18 per cent) Albertans don\u2019t think their economy is too dependent on oil and gas.\u00a0In short, many Albertans are fine with the status quo.<\/p>\n We also asked our respondents a series of questions to gauge their attitudes about energy transition from support for taxing carbon production to public subsidies for solar and wind power. We used this information to score respondents along a continuum ranging from strong opposition to strong support for energy-transition policies.<\/p>\n Based on our research, we believe that as long as many Albertans are convinced that the oil and gas industry can continue to deliver positive economic benefits, support for a transition to a low-carbon economy will continue to have only shallow support with many people in the province.<\/p>\n Why is this?\u00a0We have a few ideas.<\/p>\n Prospect theory<\/a>, developed by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, assumes that people, by nature, are loss averse.\u00a0The theory, cited as one<\/a> of the reasons that Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002, suggests people fear losses.<\/p>\n Oil, gas and mining extraction represents 26 per cent of Alberta\u2019s GDP<\/a>. It\u2019s a huge part of the economy.<\/p>\n In line with our findings, prospect theory (also known as loss-aversion theory) suggests many Albertans don\u2019t want to lose out on the economic gains that can come with extracting the province\u2019s vast oil and gas reserves.<\/p>\n There are policy implications as well. Our research confirms that an overwhelming number of Albertans worry about climate change. This is in keeping with other polls showing that nearly eight-in-10 people think<\/a> the province needs to transition to renewable energy, and a majority think it\u2019s time to move away from oil and gas. To mitigate the effects of climate change, advocates must now convince the public in Alberta that clean energy is, in fact, economically attractive \u2013 and that the economic gains outweigh any loses, potential or perceived.<\/p>\n This may be a tough task. As our analysis suggests, championing the economic benefits of clean energy and energy transition does not convince Albertans to support it. They don\u2019t want to kill the proverbial oil and gas goose that could continue to lay golden eggs. This is similar to previous research that suggests the often-used \u201cgreen benefits\u201d argument<\/a> that proponents of clean energy herald, is not all that persuasive for many people.<\/p>\n We argue that both arguments are likely to be ignored by people who believe in the economic benefits of the status quo. People are unlikely to change their minds unless policy-makers \u2013 business leaders and conservative politicians in particular \u2013 stop framing energy transition as a threat and start acknowledging that the oil and gas industry faces pressures for fundamental transformation because of global pressures that demand energy transition.<\/p>\n How do you change attitudes? Here are some suggestions for business and political leaders on how to talk differently about energy transition.<\/p>\n First, connect loss aversion to energy transition. That is, convince people that failing to switch to clean energy early amounts to a big economic risk.<\/p>\n Since 2015<\/a>, Mark Carney, economist and former governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, has warned that the climate crisis could trigger a financial crisis<\/a>, forcing many companies into bankruptcy and wipe out US$20 trillion<\/a> in assets worldwide. Earlier this year, Carney even warned<\/a> that climate change could trigger deaths worse than COVID-19.<\/p>\n Those are the potential losses. But Carney also argues there are big economic gains<\/a> to be made in energy transition. Alberta could see a boon with energy transition. The province is already on track to lead the country in wind and solar power by 2025<\/a>. Positioning the economic benefits as a greater gain than a loss has potential power to shift public opinion.<\/p>\n Secondly, our study suggests Albertans are keen to avoid the boom\/bust cycle that comes with the province\u2019s fossil-fuel-dependent economy. Nearly eight-in-10 Albertans want to diversify the province\u2019s economy. Political and business leaders would be wise to link getting Alberta off the oil and gas rollercoaster to the economic benefits of energy transition.<\/p>\n Finally, there\u2019s little doubt the transition will be tough, triggering, by one estimate, between 312,000 and 450,000 job losses<\/a> in the oil and gas industry. In its \u201cPeople-Centred Just Transition<\/a>\u201d discussion paper, the federal government puts its focus on fairness and equality, stressing that the move away from oil and gas \u201cmust create decent, fair and high-value work.\u201d<\/p>\n These are anxious times for many Albertans, especially for those with jobs that depend on the oil and gas sector. Remember the many who felt ignored and left behind and took to the highways and byways of the Prairie province in yellow vests<\/a> a few years ago, voicing anti-Trudeau government sentiments, and concerns about a lack of market access for Alberta\u2019s oil and gas, and even immigration. As Kahneman argues, our \u201cbrains respond quickly to purely symbolic threats.\u201d\u00a0We\u00a0\u201cfight harder to prevent losses than to achieve gains.\u201d<\/p>\n The federal government\u2019s focus on fairness in its discussion paper<\/a> makes sense, but highlighting the economic advantages of energy transition needs to go hand-in-hand with job creation efforts. The economic benefits and job opportunities of energy transition need to be positioned as greater than the job losses that will inevitably come in the oil and gas industry.<\/p>\n Competing narratives make attitude changes messy.<\/p>\n