{"id":269748,"date":"2021-09-16T14:00:36","date_gmt":"2021-09-16T18:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/issues\/a-critical-step-in-the-net-zero-energy-transition-is-modelling-the-future-were-aiming-for\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T23:40:59","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T03:40:59","slug":"a-critical-step-in-the-net-zero-energy-transition-is-modelling-the-future-were-aiming-for","status":"publish","type":"issues","link":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2021\/09\/a-critical-step-in-the-net-zero-energy-transition-is-modelling-the-future-were-aiming-for\/","title":{"rendered":"A critical step in the net-zero energy transition is modelling the future we\u2019re aiming for"},"content":{"rendered":"

Climate change is now undeniably personal for most people in Canada. Throughout the country, rising global temperatures have been connected to record-breaking heat<\/a>, sparking worse and earlier-than-ever wildfires<\/a>, alongside unprecedented flooding<\/a>, storm surges, melting sea ice in the North<\/a> and more. Public pressure is on the federal government to act. But how? One critical task will be to correct deeply flawed emissions projections and instead map Canada\u2019s net-zero emissions future.<\/p>\n

Drawing out what a net-zero future looks like in Canada is critically important for industry, investors, regulators, policy-makers and residents to confront the intensifying climate crisis and seize energy transition benefits. Yet right now, one of the most relied upon guides<\/a> \u2014 produced annually by the Canada Energy Regulator<\/a> (CER) \u2014 models a future in which low-carbon policies are essentially static. Worse, CER projects Canadian emissions will remain high for decades instead of falling to zero by mid-century, as required by Canadian law. That goal is also consistent with what scientists tell us<\/a> needs to happen globally to limit global warming to 1.5 C, a goal Canada has embraced under the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

The CER (and its predecessor, the National Energy Board) has only modelled scenarios that imply the Paris Agreement\u2019s<\/a> goals will not be met, where the world does too little to reduce its production and consumption of oil, gas and coal, and where Canada\u2019s climate policies lack ambition and fail to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Put simply: there\u2019s a big discrepancy between the future CER is modelling and a future we\u2019d want to live in.<\/p>\n

The CER is now lagging far behind international best practices as set out by the International Energy Agency (IEA). In May 2021, the IEA released its \u201cNet Zero by 2050<\/em><\/a>\u201d report, charting a path for the global energy sector to be in line with meeting the Paris Agreement\u2019s ambition of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. This comprehensive study of how to transition to a net-zero energy system by 2050 by an agency internationally renowned for its energy policy expertise sent shock waves through the global climate and energy worlds.<\/p>\n

The IEA report describes global policies and actions needed along this pathway and the implications for global energy markets and future investments. It details the required expansion of renewable energy and the advantages of a cleaner, climate-compatible energy system. It shows huge and rapid declines in global consumption of coal, oil and gas and says no further exploration or expanded production of fossil fuels<\/a> can be justified if the world is to meet the net-zero goal.<\/p>\n

It also emphasizes that the path to net-zero emissions is narrow, and that policies and public and private sector investments need to quickly align with net-zero requirements. Canada\u2019s CER must now follow this lead and centre a net-zero scenario in its analysis.<\/p>\n

Yet, in its consultations this summer in the lead up to its \u201cEnergy Futures 2021<\/em>\u201d report, the CER is still modelling futures where the international community fails to heed the climate science and live up to Canada\u2019s Paris Agreement commitments. Even its \u201cevolving policies\u201d scenario<\/a> explores only a modest strengthening of climate policies and uptake of clean technologies, and fails to capture either Canada\u2019s own policies \u2013 now including a new 2030 target and net zero by 2050 legislation \u2013 or the pace of change occurring in the world\u2019s energy systems.<\/p>\n

Why isn\u2019t CER already modeling net zero scenarios? CER\u2019s predecessor, the National Energy Board, historically was charged with ensuring safe operation of Canada\u2019s oil and gas pipelines, but it did not question the safety of oil and gas for the global climate. As well, before climate policy ambitions ramped up internationally, existing policies might have been a reasonable baseline for demand.<\/p>\n

Neither justification holds today.<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s commitment to reach net zero by 2050 poses a grave challenge to the sector that accounts for the largest share of national emissions. At the same time, growing climate ambition<\/a> in other countries, including a proliferation of zero-emission vehicle mandates, threatens global fossil fuel demand and thus Canada\u2019s exports.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s urgently important for both Canada\u2019s climate commitment and economy to get these models right.<\/p>\n

The CER presents itself as the authoritative source of energy information. The \u201cEnergy Futures\u201d series<\/a> is routinely used by industry<\/a>, investors and policy-makers to guide investment and spending decisions on fossil fuels. If the CER keeps getting this wrong, it\u2019s helping lock in fossil fuel developments and, therefore, mounting climate impacts.<\/p>\n

By proceeding this way, the CER is also heightening the risks of stranded assets<\/a> \u2013 the investments that fossil fuel companies are already writing off because they can\u2019t operate them at a profit \u2013 \u00a0(a huge issue for private firms and financial institutions that support them) and of wasting public funds on oil and gas development. Without a reliable net-zero plan, communities, workers and investors will be caught off guard by rapid changes in energy markets as the world increasingly shuns fossil fuels and redoubles efforts to zero out emissions.<\/p>\n

We joined more than 20 scientists, academics and energy-system modellers to urge Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to mandate that the CER model 2050 net-zero energy futures scenarios. This is essential to support Canada\u2019s efforts to meet and exceed its climate targets, including net zero by 2050, and to reflect our responsibility under the Paris Agreement. This analysis would help align investment decisions with a climate-safe future, and provide industry, workers, regulators, policy-makers and people in Canada generally with the tools and context needed to plan this country\u2019s energy transition.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s time for the CER to model a future aligned with Canada\u2019s climate commitments, a livable future, and the dizzying pace of change in the world\u2019s energy use.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Climate change is now undeniably personal for most people in Canada. Throughout the country, rising global temperatures have been connected to record-breaking heat, sparking worse and earlier-than-ever wildfires, alongside unprecedented flooding, storm surges, melting sea ice in the North and more. Public pressure is on the federal government to act. But how? One critical task […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":279785,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2025-10-08T03:41:01Z","apple_news_api_id":"12ee0424-fb53-4280-9bd4-125026651f3b","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2025-10-08T03:41:01Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AEu4EJPtTQoCb1BJQJmUfOw","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false},"categories":[9361,9372,9383],"tags":[8638,8653],"article-status":[],"irpp-category":[4327,4261,4337],"section":[],"irpp-tag":[],"class_list":["post-269748","issues","type-issues","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environnement","category-recent-stories-fr","category-sciences-et-technologies","tag-changements-climatiques","tag-fossil-fuels-fr","irpp-category-energie","irpp-category-environnement","irpp-category-science-et-technologie"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nA critical step in the net-zero energy transition is modelling the future we\u2019re aiming for<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2021\/09\/a-critical-step-in-the-net-zero-energy-transition-is-modelling-the-future-were-aiming-for\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A critical step in the net-zero energy transition is modelling the future we\u2019re aiming for\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Climate change is now undeniably personal for most people in Canada. 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