{"id":269505,"date":"2021-06-02T15:20:35","date_gmt":"2021-06-02T19:20:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/issues\/after-big-oils-very-bad-week-the-message-for-alberta-is-clear\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T23:33:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T03:33:46","slug":"after-big-oils-very-bad-week-the-message-for-alberta-is-clear","status":"publish","type":"issues","link":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2021\/06\/after-big-oils-very-bad-week-the-message-for-alberta-is-clear\/","title":{"rendered":"After Big Oil\u2019s very bad week, the message for Alberta is clear"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alberta\u2019s predictably hostile, defensive reaction to the International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA) landmark Net Zero by 2050<\/em> roadmap shows it no longer matters what the Kenney government or its fossil fuel industry allies think about the drive to decarbonize the global economy and hold average global warming to 1.5 degrees C.<\/p>\n

The IEA\u2019s call for no future investment in new fossil fuel infrastructure was reinforced scarcely a week later, when three of the world\u2019s biggest oil companies faced deeply humbling challenges from the courts and their own shareholders.<\/p>\n

The combined impact is crystal clear: If Alberta\u2019s own policy-makers don\u2019t move to diversify the province\u2019s economy and plan for a managed fossil fuel decline, financial and other institutions that make future fossil fuel development possible will make the decision for them.<\/p>\n

Oil demand to fall 75 per cent<\/strong><\/p>\n

One pivotal paragraph in the IEA\u2019s 224-page report<\/a> heralds an unfamiliar, new world for Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, and any other jurisdiction that has centred its economy on oil, gas and coal. \u201cBeyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development in our pathway, and no new coal mines or mine extensions are required,\u201d the IEA writes. \u201cThe unwavering policy focus on climate change in the net-zero pathway results in a sharp decline in fossil fuel demand, meaning that the focus for oil and gas producers switches entirely to output \u2013 and emissions reductions \u2013 from the operation of existing assets.\u201d<\/p>\n

Continuing to pour money into \u201cjunk investments\u201d in oil and gas could throw countries off their carbon-reduction targets, IEA executive director Fatih Birol told<\/a> Sky News.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s just the beginning. The IEA scenario has all coal- and oil-fired power plants phased out by 2040 \u2013 just around the corner for an industry whose multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects are built and financed to last decades. The only exceptions will be facilities that can take on the added cost of carbon-capture technologies that are as yet expensive and unreliable<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The report shows oil demand falling 75 per cent between 2020 and 2050, to 24 million barrels per day, with OPEC nations providing 52 per cent of a \u201cmuch-reduced global oil supply\u201d and production becoming \u201cincreasingly concentrated in a small number of low-cost producers.\u201d Gas demand is expected to fall 55 per cent.<\/p>\n

With Alberta well-recognized<\/a> as an expensive producer, \u201cthis will have a significant impact on the price and therefore production levels of oil and gas,\u201d said<\/a> Pembina Institute Alberta director Chris Severson-Baker. And \u201cpurchasers of oil and gas products will increasingly direct their spending to oil and gas produced with the lowest upstream emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n

A \u201ccataclysmic day\u201d for oil and gas companies<\/strong><\/p>\n

The fossil fuel industry and its political allies could have been forgiven for imagining the worst was behind them once the IEA had issued its report. That was before a flurry of court and shareholder decisions on May 26 that The Guardian<\/em> declared<\/a> a \u201ccataclysmic day\u201d for oil and gas companies.<\/p>\n

In the space of 24 hours, a court in The Hague ordered Royal Dutch Shell<\/a> \u2013 whose greenhouse-gas emissions would make it the world\u2019s fourth-biggest carbon polluter if it were a country \u2013 to boost its 2030 emissions-reduction target from 20 per cent to 45 per cent. Hedge fund Engine No. 1 won two seats on the ExxonMobil<\/a> board with a challenge to the company\u2019s shoddy response to the climate crisis. And shareholders representing 61 per cent of Chevron<\/a> stock instructed the company to address the downstream Scope 3 emissions<\/a> that result when customers use its product as directed.<\/p>\n

\u201cGame-changer is an overused metaphor, but surely this is one,\u201d said<\/a> U.S. Environmental Defense Fund president Fred Krupp.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis will be seen in retrospect as the day when everything changed for Big Oil,\u201d Andrew Logan, senior director, oil and gas at shareholder advocacy non-profit Ceres, told the Financial Times<\/em>. \u201cHow the industry chooses to respond to this clear signal will determine which companies thrive through the coming transition and which wither.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt wasn\u2019t just a bad day for Big Oil. It was a great day for life on Earth,\u201d added<\/a> U.S. climate journalist Emily Atkin. \u201cIt offered proof that fossil fuel CEOs aren\u2019t the sole deciders of who gets to live and thrive on future planet Earth.\u201d<\/p>\n

Speaking with The New York Times<\/em>, University of Alberta energy and environmental economist Andrew Leach said<\/a> the legal and shareholder action raised a provocative question for the Alberta industry: \u201cWhat does my business model look like in a net-zero world? That\u2019s where things get really complex.\u201d<\/p>\n

A \u201cstunning evolution\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

But even before the news, the IEA\u2019s new roadmap marked a stunning evolution<\/a> for an international agency formed in 1974 to protect the interests of oil-consuming countries. Fossil fuel companies could routinely count on IEA analysis to justify their often fevered<\/a> claims that oil and gas demand will continue growing through 2040 or beyond<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Until now, the IEA\u2019s fossil-fuel-friendly analysis has had a severe, damaging impact on international climate action. In the five years since the Paris Agreement was signed, 60 of the world\u2019s biggest banks invested US$3.8 trillion<\/a> in new fossil fuel projects \u2013 largely because the IEA told them they could.<\/p>\n

While the Paris-based agency styled<\/a> its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) as the \u201cgold standard of energy analysis,\u201d IEA watchers said the agency\u2019s work was giving cover and legitimacy<\/a> to new fossil fuel infrastructure. IEA analysts steadfastly maintained<\/a> the WEO was a projection, not a prediction. And they cast the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), a secondary energy projection recently added to the annual outlook, as being compliant with the goals of the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

But \u201cif you look at oil and gas company annual reports, you\u2019ll see constant references to IEA scenarios, including references to the SDS, claiming that even in the IEA\u2019s climate scenario, we need to keep investing in new oil and gas fields,\u201d Oil Change International analyst Kelly Trout said in an interview. Now \u201cthere will be a shift. If companies are serious about 1.5 degrees, they\u2019d better adjust their plans to the IEA\u2019s new scenario that actually aligns with that.\u201d<\/p>\n

The new \u201cgold standard\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Just as important as the IEA\u2019s top-line conclusion \u2013 and just as challenging for Alberta\u2019s vision of a fossil fuel future \u2013 was a tectonic change in the agency\u2019s modelling approach.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a backcast<\/a>, not a forecast, and that\u2019s a major shift,\u201d Corporate Knights research director Ralph Torrie said in an interview. Typically, forecasters start with historical fossil fuel consumption and investment trends, project them into the future and decide how far they dare bend the curve. This time, the IEA\u2019s analysts situated themselves in 2050, cast their minds back to today and asked themselves what could realistically be done to get from here to there.<\/p>\n

\u201cAsking what has to happen to stay within 1.5 degrees C is a real game-changer,\u201d Torrie said. \u201cThat question makes a world of difference in where you end up, because now you have no choice but to push really hard on anything that will help you get to 1.5.\u201d<\/p>\n

Which means that, after steadily relying on the IEA\u2019s analysis to justify a carbon-intensive industrial strategy that subjects their province to dizzying economic booms and busts<\/a>, Alberta politicians suddenly had to react to an agency intent on tackling a crisis even more dangerous to humanity<\/a> than the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

They didn\u2019t take it well.<\/p>\n

Fair-weather friends<\/strong><\/p>\n

The IEA\u2019s net-zero roadmap is \u201cunreasonable,\u201d \u201cunfeasible,\u201d and \u201cdriven by activists,\u201d Alberta Energy Minister Sonya Savage, a former pipeline executive, said<\/a> in a statement.<\/p>\n

The notion that the IEA, with a solid complement of former fossil fuel industry staffers on its roster, is \u201cdriven by activists\u201d would no doubt come as news to Alok Sharma. He\u2019s the minister in British Prime Minister Boris Johnson\u2019s Conservative government who\u2019s set to chair this year\u2019s United Nations climate change conference, COP26. The Net Zero by 2050<\/em> roadmap was commissioned<\/a> by the COP presidency.<\/p>\n

And just last year, Savage was happy enough to amplify the IEA\u2019s findings, citing the WEO as \u201cproof\u201d that the world\u2019s energy markets will continue to demand oil \u201cdecades\u201d into the future.<\/p>\n

It remains to be seen how quickly the IEA\u2019s new analysis and the reactions to the court and shareholder action will filter through the global finance and investment community. But the message is crystal clear.<\/p>\n

\u201cFinance institutions can no longer justify lending, underwriting, insuring or investing in coal, gas or oil expansion projects, or the infrastructure that facilitates that expansion,\u201d Adam Scott, director of Toronto-based Shift Action for Pension Wealth and Planet Health, said in an interview. \u201cThis isn\u2019t an optional pathway. It\u2019s a roadmap showing the direction we must take in order to prevent the worst impacts of the climate crisis from becoming reality.\u201d<\/p>\n

As that realization dawns, Savage, Kenney and their colleagues will, of course, still be free to stand their ground. But no one will believe them. And sooner or later, oilpatch voters will begin to notice the rest of the world prospering from the shift to a decarbonized future and ask why their province is being left behind.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alberta\u2019s predictably hostile, defensive reaction to the International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA) landmark Net Zero by 2050 roadmap shows it no longer matters what the Kenney government or its fossil fuel industry allies think about the drive to decarbonize the global economy and hold average global warming to 1.5 degrees C. The IEA\u2019s call for no […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":279396,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2025-10-08T03:33:49Z","apple_news_api_id":"111a7119-439e-4854-9a3c-ee6e3b055764","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2025-10-08T03:33:49Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AERpxGUOeSFSaPO5uOwVXZA","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false},"categories":[9361,9372,9383],"tags":[8638,8653,8411],"article-status":[],"irpp-category":[4327,4261,4337],"section":[],"irpp-tag":[],"class_list":["post-269505","issues","type-issues","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environnement","category-recent-stories-fr","category-sciences-et-technologies","tag-changements-climatiques","tag-fossil-fuels-fr","tag-renewable-energy-fr","irpp-category-energie","irpp-category-environnement","irpp-category-science-et-technologie"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nAfter Big Oil\u2019s very bad week, the message for Alberta is clear<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2021\/06\/after-big-oils-very-bad-week-the-message-for-alberta-is-clear\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"After Big Oil\u2019s very bad week, the message for Alberta is clear\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alberta\u2019s predictably hostile, defensive reaction to the International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA) landmark Net Zero by 2050 roadmap shows it no longer matters what the Kenney government or its fossil fuel industry allies think about the drive to decarbonize the global economy and hold average global warming to 1.5 degrees C. 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