{"id":264502,"date":"2016-11-04T10:30:58","date_gmt":"2016-11-04T14:30:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/issues\/the-saskatchewan-climate-change-white-paper\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T21:20:21","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T01:20:21","slug":"the-saskatchewan-climate-change-white-paper","status":"publish","type":"issues","link":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2016\/11\/the-saskatchewan-climate-change-white-paper\/","title":{"rendered":"The Saskatchewan Climate Change White Paper"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s no secret that the Saskatchewan government doesn\u2019t like the idea of a national carbon price.\u00a0When Prime Minister Trudeau announced federal plans for a carbon price floor in early October, Saskatchewan Environment Minister Scott Moe walked out of a national environment minister\u2019s meeting, and Premier Brad Wall called the plan a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/saskatchewan\/saskatchewan-brad-wall-opposed-ottawa-carbon-pricing-1.3789379\">&#8220;betrayal.&#8221;<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Fifteen days later, on October 18, Saskatchewan released its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.saskatchewan.ca\/~\/media\/news%20release%20backgrounders\/2016\/oct\/final%20%20white%20paper%20%20oct%2017.pdf\">Climate Change White Paper<\/a>. The White Paper is positioned as an \u201calternative approach to Prime Minister Trudeau\u2019s national carbon tax.\u201d It argues that \u201ctalk about a carbon tax and cap and trade is the wrong conversation to be having\u201d and seeks to shift the national conversation to \u201cone that has a global perspective and a focus on innovation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What follows is a brief evaluation of whether the White Paper achieves its intended aim.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Has it proved carbon pricing to be \u201can ineffective way of reducing carbon consumption,\u201d as it claims?<\/li>\n<li>Has it proved that \u201cthe negative consequences of a carbon tax for Saskatchewan employment and the provincial economy would be significant\u201d?<\/li>\n<li>Has it provided a convincing alternative means of addressing climate change?<\/li>\n<li>Will it change the national conversation on climate action?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Is carbon pricing ineffective? <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Saskatchewan Climate Change White Paper asserts that, \u201ccarbon taxes at the rate currently being contemplated will not modify behaviour.\u201d The carbon price being contemplated is $10\/tonne CO<sub>2<\/sub>e in 2018, increasing by $10\/year to reach $50\/tonne CO<sub>2<\/sub>e in 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Economic analysis of the British Columbia carbon tax has shown that these prices are likely to modify behaviour and reduce emissions. BC introduced a $10\/tonne carbon tax in 2008. The tax increased by $5\/tonne each year until it reached $30\/tonne in 2012. It remains at that level today.<\/p>\n<p>Summarizing several studies, <a href=\"https:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1016\/j.enpol.2015.08.011\">Brian Murray and Nicholas Rivers<\/a> find that \u201cempirical and simulation models suggest that the (BC carbon) tax has reduced emissions in the province by between 5% and 15%\u201d relative to a business-as-usual forecast. University of British Columbia economics professors Werner Antweiler and Sumeet Gulati confirm this finding in the transportation sector in their working paper <a href=\"https:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.2778868\">Frugal Cars or Frugal Drivers? How Carbon and Fuel Taxes Influence the Choice and Use of Cars<\/a>. Antweiler and Gulati conclude that \u201cwithout BC\u2019s carbon tax fuel demand per capita would be 7% higher, and the average vehicle\u2019s fuel efficiency would be 4% lower.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>These results were achieved with a $30\/tonne carbon tax. We can expect even greater reductions with a carbon price of $50\/tonne in 2022. Saskatchewan\u2019s claim that a $50\/tonne carbon price will not modify behaviour is without empirical support.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Will carbon pricing harm Saskatchewan\u2019s economy?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As evidence of the burden of a carbon tax, the White Paper presents a chart showing how much each sector would have to pay when the tax reaches $50\/tonne (see figure 1 below). Adding the totals together, the White Paper estimates $2.5 billion worth of carbon charges in Saskatchewan.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig1-2.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-36470\" src=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig1-2.png\" alt=\"dolter-fig1\" width=\"625\" height=\"579\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The $2.5 billion then disappears from the White Paper analysis. But this revenue is important. Unless the Saskatchewan government burns the cash on the front steps of the legislative building, they will have $2.5 billion to spend. As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/opinion\/albertas-climate-plan-requires-serious-debate\/article30195573\/\">Blake Shaffer points out in the <em>Globe and Mail<\/em><\/a>, the choice of how to spend the revenue should be the focus of the carbon-pricing debate.<\/p>\n<p>If Saskatchewan took a fee-and-dividend approach, the government could use the $2.5 billion to send a $2,172 cheque to every woman, man and child in the province.<\/p>\n<p>If Saskatchewan wanted to take a double-dividend approach, it could reduce taxes by 36 percent across the board (the total forecast tax revenue from personal, corporate, sales, and property taxes is $6.9 billion for 2016-17).<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, many of the critiques of carbon-pricing, both in Saskatchewan and next-door in Alberta, fail to account for carbon-pricing revenues. When these revenues are ignored, citizens get a distorted view of the cost of climate policy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Saskatchewan government has made the case that the province is particularly vulnerable to carbon pricing due to its export-oriented economy. In his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/report-on-business\/rob-commentary\/a-better-emissions-solution-than-a-revenue-neutral-carbon-tax\/article32352958\/\">op-ed in the Globe and Mail<\/a>, Premier Wall notes, \u201cSaskatchewan has a disproportionate share of Canada\u2019s trade-exposed industrial sectors.\u201d A <a href=\"https:\/\/ecofiscal.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Ecofiscal-Commission-Carbon-Pricing-Competitiveness-Report-November-2015.pdf\">report from Canada\u2019s Ecofiscal Commission<\/a> confirms that Saskatchewan\u2019s emissions-intensive industries are more trade-exposed than other provinces (see figure 2 below).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig2.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-36208 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig2.png\" alt=\"dolter-fig2\" width=\"625\" height=\"535\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Trade-exposed industries compete in global markets and cannot pass carbon costs along to their customers. The worry for Saskatchewan is that these companies will relocate to new (browner?) pastures where carbon is not priced.<\/p>\n<p>Well designed policy can reduce these threats to competitiveness.<\/p>\n<p>In a carbon tax regime, Canada\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/ecofiscal.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Ecofiscal-Commission-Carbon-Pricing-Competitiveness-Report-November-2015.pdf\">Ecofiscal Commission proposes<\/a> output rebates could be offered to \u201cemissions-intensive trade-exposed\u201d (EITE) industries. The right incentives are then in place to maintain competitiveness; companies must pay for their emissions, but are rewarded for their output.<\/p>\n<p>In their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.enviroeconomics.org\/single-post\/2016\/09\/06\/Assessing-Canadian-Carbon-Pricing-Pathways\">report<\/a>, Chris Bataille and Dave Sawyer model the possibility of Saskatchewan meeting the national carbon price with a hybrid system that would include a carbon tax on buildings, transport and light industry, and a \u201cnationally tradable intensity standard and output-based allocations (OBA) for the EITE (trade-exposed) industries.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In their analysis, Bataille and Sawyer find that Saskatchewan would do well under a hybrid climate policy system. GHG emissions would be reduced by 33 percent by 2030, and GDP could actually increase by 4.23 percent over the reference case (see figure 3 below) if firms in Saskatchewan could beat their targets and sell credits to firms in other jurisdictions.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig3.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-36210\" src=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig3.png\" alt=\"dolter-fig3\" width=\"625\" height=\"495\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>While international competitiveness is a concern for Saskatchewan\u2019s trade-exposed industries, there are policy options to address this concern. Without a fuller analysis of these options, it is difficult to see how the White Paper can conclude that carbon pricing would have a \u201csignificant harmful impact\u201d on the Saskatchewan economy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Has Saskatchewan proposed convincing alternative policies?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The White Paper proposes shifting the conversation from GHG emissions released in Saskatchewan and Canada, which it deems \u201cmarginal,\u201d to \u201cthe other 98%\u201d of global emissions released outside of Canada.<\/p>\n<p>This \u201cglobal perspective\u201d brings with it two noteworthy claims.<\/p>\n<p>The first is that \u201cSaskatchewan deserves credit and recognition for GHG reductions achieved through the use of uranium mined in our province.\u201d In particular, the White Paper suggests Saskatchewan should receive credit of 375 Mt CO<sub>2<\/sub>e\/year for exporting uranium. The assumption is that nuclear power plants fuelled with Saskatchewan uranium prevent emissions from coal-fired power plants in other countries.<\/p>\n<p>It is not clear that Saskatchewan has considered the ramifications of switching to this alternative system of international GHG accounting. If Saskatchewan receives 375 Mt of credit for exporting uranium, is Canada willing to own 627 Mt of GHGs from exported oil and gas (see figure 4 below and appendix for data sources and assumptions)?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-36212\" src=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig4.png\" alt=\"dolter-fig4\" width=\"625\" height=\"514\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Asking for credits for uranium opens a Pandora\u2019s box of global GHG accounting issues that the Saskatchewan government would be wise to avoid.<\/p>\n<p>The second global claim is that Saskatchewan \u201ccan help the world clean up coal-fired electricity generation.\u201d This is because Saskatchewan is home to the world\u2019s first carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) facility, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.saskpowerccs.com\/ccs-projects\/boundary-dam-carbon-capture-project\/\">Boundary Dam Carbon Capture Project<\/a>. While CCS technology can help reduce global emissions from coal-fired plants, this is not really an argument against carbon pricing. As this recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/economy\/economicanalysis\/how-a-revenue-neutral-carbon-price-can-help-saskatchewan\/\">MacLean\u2019s article<\/a> by Andrew Leach, Mark Cameron and Christopher Ragan argues, Saskatchewan\u2019s CCS export strategy would actually benefit from a global carbon price. Figure 5 below shows the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) with and without a $50\/tonne carbon price. As the red bars indicate, a carbon price makes conventional coal more expensive and improves the economics of CCS.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-36214\" src=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-fig5.png\" alt=\"dolter-fig5\" width=\"625\" height=\"597\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Apart from these calls for international credits and CCS technology sales, the White Paper does not present much in the way of policies for reducing provincial emissions.<\/p>\n<p>Much more work is required to move Saskatchewan from White Paper to credible climate change plan.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What comes next? <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Rather than changing the conversation in Canada, perhaps it is best to think of the Climate Change White Paper as the start of a conversation in Saskatchewan. As a next step, Saskatchewan could take a page from its neighbour Alberta and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alberta.ca\/documents\/climate\/climate-leadership-report-to-minister.pdf\">convene a panel of experts to propose<\/a> climate policy options, model their consequences, and create their own climate leadership report outlining how Saskatchewan could reduce emissions and protect its economy. That would indeed be something to shift the national conversation.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-appendix.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-36216\" src=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Dolter-appendix.png\" alt=\"dolter-appendix\" width=\"625\" height=\"516\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Photo: Andrey Yurlov \/ Shutterstock<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>Do you have something to say about the article you just read? Be part of the\u00a0<\/em>Policy Options<em>\u00a0discussion, and send in your own submission.\u00a0Here is a\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/article-submission\/\"><em>link<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0on how to do it. <\/em><em>|\u00a0Souhaitez-vous r\u00e9agir \u00e0 cet article ? <\/em><em>Joignez-vous aux d\u00e9bats d\u2019<\/em>Options politiques\u00a0<em>et soumettez-nous votre texte en suivant ces\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/article-submission\/\"><em>directives<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s no secret that the Saskatchewan government doesn\u2019t like the idea of a national carbon price.\u00a0When Prime Minister Trudeau announced federal plans for a carbon price floor in early October, Saskatchewan Environment Minister Scott Moe walked out of a national environment minister\u2019s meeting, and Premier Brad Wall called the plan a &#8220;betrayal.&#8221; Fifteen days later, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":237466,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2025-10-08T01:20:24Z","apple_news_api_id":"bbc28311-cff2-41d8-a51b-83455f9ab37e","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2025-10-08T01:20:24Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/Au8KDEc_yQdilG4NFX5qzfg","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false},"categories":[9362,9361,9372],"tags":[8638],"article-status":[],"irpp-category":[4245,4261],"section":[],"irpp-tag":[],"class_list":["post-264502","issues","type-issues","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-environnement","category-recent-stories-fr","tag-changements-climatiques","irpp-category-economie","irpp-category-environnement"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Saskatchewan Climate Change White Paper<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2016\/11\/the-saskatchewan-climate-change-white-paper\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Saskatchewan Climate Change White Paper\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s no secret that the Saskatchewan government doesn\u2019t like the idea of a national carbon price.\u00a0When Prime Minister Trudeau announced federal plans for a carbon price floor in early October, Saskatchewan Environment Minister Scott Moe walked out of a national environment minister\u2019s meeting, and Premier Brad Wall called the plan a &#8220;betrayal.&#8221; 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