{"id":261594,"date":"2003-04-01T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2003-04-01T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/issues\/getting-it-right-when-the-big-idea-becomes-a-bad-idea\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T19:33:40","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T23:33:40","slug":"getting-it-right-when-the-big-idea-becomes-a-bad-idea","status":"publish","type":"issues","link":"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/fr\/2003\/04\/getting-it-right-when-the-big-idea-becomes-a-bad-idea\/","title":{"rendered":"Getting it Right \u2013 When the Big Idea Becomes a Bad Idea"},"content":{"rendered":"

Over the years, Policy Options<\/em> has published several splendid viewpoints on what government policy should or should not be. It has published far fewer on why policy so often does not work out as expected and what might be done to improve the odds. That is the concern of this article. The goal of policy is not only a good decision; the goal is the best choice among the policy options available and then successful execution and adjustment over time. The article draws heavily on the time honoured progression: problem definition\u2014 options development\u2014 analysis\u2014 goals and objectives\u2014 decision\u2014 execution\u2014 post-execution evaluation and adjustment.<\/p>\n

Policy does not exist in a vacuum; it always begins with a problem, or at least a perceived problem, to be fixed. Trace policy failure back far enough and do not be surprised to find a flawed definition of the problem. If the problem to be fixed is not properly defined, it will only be by luck that there will be a good policy outcome. Only luck fixes a problem that is not understood. Any solution will do if you do not know the problem, the same way as any road will get you there if you do not know where there is.<\/p>\n

Getting precision and clarity around problem definition is crucial to policy success. A fuzzy understanding of the problem inevitably cascades into an inadequate and incomplete options list, soft and confused analysis, wrong decisions, weak execution, limited ability to respond and recover in the post-execution evaluation and adjustment phase and generally unpleasant surprises. Poor problem definition is fertile ground for the law of unintended negative consequences\u2014 things you never expected to happen, happen, and almost all of them are bad. There is no law of unintended positive consequences. When policy goes wrong, you rarely luck out.<\/p>\n

MBA instructors implore their students to \u201cget it right up front.\u201d Up front is when the problem is being defined. Errors up front magnify exponentially down the road. The scientist’s \u201cfaulty premise\u2014 faulty experiment\u201d adage applies equally to policymaking; just substitute problem definition for premise and policy outcome for experiment.<\/p>\n

The national gun registry policy illustrates the consequences of fuzzy problem definition. What problem was gun registry trying to fix: too much firearm violence; too much firearm crime; too many firearm accidents; too much firearm theft; too many unexpected encounters between law enforcement and armed people; too much careless firearm storage; too many poorly trained firearm users; too many high powered firearms; too many hand-guns slipping through the current system; all good people have a comprehensive firearm registry and the problem is us good people do not have one; all of the above; some of the above.<\/p>\n

Look at what happened next! Disastrously wrong cost estimates in the analysis phase (a $119 million, five year cost estimate to be covered almost entirely by registration fees ultimately became a billion dollars);\u00a0a flawed decision to proceed;\u00a0even more flawed execution (for operational staff the unenviable assignment was essentially doing\u00a0the undoable and achieving the unachievable); political and public relations driven post-execution evaluation and adjustment. The policy outcome: frustration, anger, confusion, uncertainty, division, squandered time and money, even most un-Canadianlike civil disobedience and all with no obvious benefit and the still unanswered question of what problem exactly were we trying to fix.<\/p>\n

Gun registry is a textbook case of the law of unintended negative consequences getting a hold of fuzzy problem definition. It is a rare problem that a billion dollars does not put a good dent in, but that would appear to be where we are with the gun registry. Had the problem been clearly and precisely defined surely we would have more to show for the billion. This is not to pick on this federal government. Scratch any government in power for long enough and you find illustrations of poor problem definition and its consequences. Poor problem definition always leaves everyone in a policy place they would rather not be. Indeed! Get it right up front!<\/p>\n

Defining a problem properly is no easy task. Often more art than science, there is no step by step manual that guarantees success. Advice that may be helpful includes the following: think the problem through carefully and systematically\u2014 it seems trite but plain old lack of thought explains a lot that goes wrong in policy; identify who specifically is affected by the problem and, if at all possible, quantify the effects; be patient\u2014 getting problems properly defined cannot be rushed; get people involved with a history of successfully getting clarifying structure around problems\u2014 some have a knack for getting things right up front and others do not; get perspective on the problem by classifying and ranking its seriousness\u2014 all problems are not equally serious; abandon preconceptions and give people wide intellectual latitude to explore; give the process of defining the problem the respect it deserves\u2014 defining the problem is an important step in the policy process, not an obvious-to-everyone step to be leapt over as quickly as possible; do not exaggerate the problem in an effort to boost the benefits of solving it\u2014 those chickens always come home to roost; study the experience of others defining similar problems.<\/p>\n

The problem definition stage is not the only place that policy goes wrong. Things can also get seriously off the rails in the options development and analysis phases. What decision-makers need is a full menu of the alternative ways of solving a problem that for each includes realistic estimates of benefits and costs, both quantitative and nonquantitative. Common mistakes include rejecting right out of the gate options that run counter to conventional wisdom, exaggerating benefits while low-balling costs, not properly quantifying benefits and costs, not taking proper account of where the needed resources will come from and the benefits of their alternative uses, downplaying the time value of money, not considering how things will be financed which is different from what they will cost, not properly developing and assessing the risk profile of each\u00a0option, not including an exit strategy for each option should things not work out as planned and finally, not coming to grips with the realities of actually executing an option.<\/p>\n

That most basic of policy questions, can this actually be properly done, too often does not get asked and honestly answered until too late. What is great in theory is sometimes an implementation disaster. There is no\u00a0better reason not to do something than it cannot be done. Again, gun registry illustrates. That it could not be executed as planned, within budget should have been apparent at the start. Getting those who will actually have to execute a policy involved in the options development and analysis phases can be enormously helpful. Operational expertise can be cold water to a good proposal, but more often than not, it is a needed breath of fresh air. Operational expertise grounds policy making in the real world where it has to work.<\/p>\n

Most of the problems in the decision stage are obvious: turning decision-making into a Hobson’s choice sham; poorly articulated goals and objectives; letting short-term political considerations override common sense, sound analysis and the long term; haste; expediency; vacillation. Two that are not so obvious are selecting a policy course without knowing clearly how and under what circumstances that course could be reversed or discontinued and not continuing to leave a next best option open. Having the next best option still open can be a godsend should the chosen path become a nightmare. Keeping an option open may not be as difficult as it first appears, but it does take planning.<\/p>\n

Execution is where the rubber meets the road. Superb execution cannot save bad policy, but it can sure make mediocre policy look a lot better than it really is. Execution is management: getting things done properly through people on time within a budget. Management is singles not homeruns, relentless attention to details, constant measurement and bench-marking, doing things properly day after boring day after boring day. The only time you think about management is when it is bad; then it is all you think about.<\/p>\n

Good execution may not be exciting but it is always a necessary condition for policy success. The much maligned GST is an example of strong policy execution. For something so complex and so hated, the actual implementation went off remarkably well. The GST also illustrates strong options development and analysis. That subsequent governments have chosen not to get rid of the GST almost surely means it was the best course available. When choosing among bad, worse and worst, it takes skill to find the bad and execute it well. When policy fails, execution failure is usually not far off.<\/p>\n

The final step in policy-making is post-execution evaluation and adjustment. Accountability is at the heart of successful policy and the post-execution evaluation and adjustment phase is at the heart of accountability. The capacity to head off policy failure at this stage should not be underestimated. Post-execution evaluation and adjustment can be particularly effective when policy fails because conditions have abruptly and materially changed. Regrettably, too often this stage is more focused on political advantage, covering one’s own backside and getting blame placed at the right door than wise assessment, constructive adjustment and avoiding similar pitfalls in the future. The goldfish bowl political process does not lend itself to easily fixing mistakes. That is why doing things properly the first time is so important.<\/p>\n

Above all, policy-makers should be humble. They should not let pride keep them from walking away from obvious policy failure. In policymaking, as in many things in business and life, your first loss is usually your\u00a0smallest. There is no point to beating a dead policy horse but too often policymakers try, only to escalate and accelerate the losses. It takes real courage to walk away from failed policy.<\/p>\n

The concluding message in all this: Define the problem properly. Develop options without any preconceptions. Evaluate each option fully and objectively. Understand the risks. Know what you are trying to achieve. Make a timely decision. Execute well. Honestly assess after the fact. Do not be afraid to change policy or abandon it altogether. Sounds much easier than it really is. When policy goes badly, it is a pretty good bet one or more of these steps did not get the attention it needed. There will always be policy failures, but there are ways to increase the chances for success. The policymaking process itself deserves a lot more attention than it usually gets. It is far more than just a choice among options. In many ways, once the choice is made, the real work begins.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Over the years, Policy Options has published several splendid viewpoints on what government policy should or should not be. It has published far fewer on why policy so often does not work out as expected and what might be done to improve the odds. That is the concern of this article. 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